I have often written in this blog and elsewhere about the three policy choices Beijing faces as it tries to manage through the adjustment process. My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice among three options. These two assumptions are: China […]
Read More…Category: Politics of rebalancing
Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt
For the past ten years much of what I have written about debt in China was aimed mainly at trying to convince analysts and policymakers that the Chinese economy was structurally dependent on an unsustainable increase in debt in order to generate GDP growth rates above some level. This level might have been around 5-6% […]
Read More…Will China’s new “supply-side” reforms help China?
It wasn’t enough that we started 2016 with one of the worst weeks in the recent history of Chinese and global markets, but the panic continued into the following weeks and wreaked a great deal of damage to confidence. A lot of the reflexive China bulls are cautioning against misinterpreting the implications of the stock […]
Read More…Do markets determine the value of the RMB?
Last Tuesday the PBoC surprised the markets with a partial deregulation of the currency regime, order prompting a great deal of discussion and debate about the value of the RMB. Part of the discussion was informed by a consensus developing in one part of the market that the RMB is no longer undervalued but is […]
Read More…China’s stock markets and revisiting 2011 predictions
I plan to post a new entry very soon but before doing so I wanted to say a few things about the stock markets, which continue to be insane (but not unexpectedly so) and then repost a blog entry that is nearly five years old. By the time I published my latest (July 17) blog […]
Read More…What does a “good” Chinese adjustment look like?
I have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China’s economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much more controlled process we see in China. Instead of a hard landing or a […]
Read More…Can Pedro Sanchez save the PSOE?
Last month Pedro Sánchez Castejón was chosen to be the new leader of Spain’s center-left Socialist Party (PSOE). El Pais called his appointment a “renewal” of the PSOE, buy although Sánchez seems to have been chosen mainly because he is too young and unknown to suffer from the revulsion most Spaniards feel towards the political […]
Read More…The four stages of Chinese growth
From the early 1980s until now China has grown at a pace not matched since the four decades Argentina enjoyed before the First World War. In spite of some fairly goofy attempts a few years ago, treatment however, clinic to characterize China during this period as having followed a set of policies called the “Beijing […]
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